Revisiting Inequality as a Determinant of Mortality: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

The persistent correlations between income and mortality, and inequality and mortality in the US is well established. It has been demonstrated with various empirical models at different levels of analysis. However, there is no consensus on the relevant confounding factors or even the functional specification of the income-inequality-health relationship across the literature. We interpret this as significant model uncertainty when it comes to the correct specification of the implied econometric model and provide a systematic approach to address it. Using BMA, we conduct a meta-analysis to determine the best model for explaining cross-sectional variations in mortality at the county level. The results provide a best set of confounding factors and emphasize the importance of controlling for unobserved State-specific factors. Furthermore, we uncover a robust nonlinear income-inequality-mortality relationship that challenges typical assumptions in the literature. Subject Codes: C11, C21, D63, I14